April 3rd, 2006

smile

Hamas- Shmamas. Humble Opinion #2.

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Personally I do not believe that Palestinian Arabs ever will have a state of their own. I think that in 25-30 years there will be 2 autonomies, one controlled and protected by Egypt, another by Jordan (or whatever will be in place of Jordan after all things that are coming now to Middle East).

I do actually like their honesty now. Mahmoud Zahar - the new "foreign minister' of PA gave this pretty interview:

"I dream of hanging a huge map of the world on the wall at my Gaza home which does not show Israel on it... I hope that our dream to have our independent state on all historic Palestine will become real one day. I'm certain of this because there is no place for the state of Israel on this land." (Jerusalem Post) Apr. 2, 2006

Guess what - it is the same policy that Yasser Arafat did all along. Ehud Barak offered enormous price for a peace that included half of Jerusalem. It was mad offer, but fortunately the reaction proved that we never had a nation as a negotiation partner. The only hope of word "Palestine" to become a word for a nation - is to replace Israel on the map.

That we will never allow.

On other hand, Palestinians are too weak as a society and they are ridden by past too hard. Recent election show that the only real choice of Palestinian voters is between honest warlord that will waste all available resources preparing to fight Israel and corrupted (even by Arab standards) bureaucrat.

That can not continue for long. After unilateral separation will take hold, there will be a need to provide Palestinians with real life. Palestinians should live without need to pass security check at every turn of their lives.

Israel occupation forces can not do it. The elected Palestinian leaders (at any level above municipal) can not do it as well. And even if they were able - Israel will never cede security matters in their hands.

The situation in the “territories” will deteriorate with separation. Egypt and Jordan will be alarmed by it because they do not want to be provoked to fight Israel. Meanwhile, their own Islamic movements will surely use Gaza and West Bank as a political cause and as a hideout place.

Sooner or later that will result into familiar pattern of Cyprus where Turkey expanded arm of protection over Turkish Cypriots and saved them from turning into terrorist state.

And this is a best thing Palestinians can hope for.